Ukraine goods trade deficit reaches USD 0.1 bln in February

Ukraine’s goods trade deficit amounted to USD 109 mln,
shrinking slightly from a USD 148 mln deficit in January, the State Statistics
Service said in its preliminary report published on April 14. Seasonally
adjusted goods trade registered a deficit of USD 415 mln (vs. a USD 665 mln
deficit in January) amid a 4.3% m/m growth of adjusted exports and a 1.1% m/m
decline in adjusted imports.

Goods exports jumped 14.9% yoy in February to USD 4.5
bln (vs. a 5.5% yoy decline in January). The growth was observed in all major
export items, while the major drivers included mineral products (70.1% yoy),
ferrous metals (12.0% yoy), animal fats and vegetable oils (12.1%) and foods
(20.3% yoy).

Goods imports inched up 1.1% yoy to USD 34.6 bln in
February (vs. 5.2% yoy decline in January). In particular, imports of polymers
advanced 13.7% yoy, imports of animals and animal products increased 26.2% yoy,
imports of vegetables grew 8.8%. At the same time, energy imports declined
20.4% yoy.

In 2M21, goods trade deficit amounted to USD 257 mln
(vs. a deficit of USD 573 mln in 2M20), goods exports increased 4.5% yoy while
goods imports inched up 0.5% yoy.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Ukraine’s
external trade picked up significantly in February after a significant downfall
in the prior month. Goods exports advanced significantly, but we don’t see many
chances for Ukrainian exports to show sustainable double-digit growth as the
price situation at the external markets might change. Goods imports remain weak
amid low imports of mineral products.

We expect the goods trade deficit to enlarge in
2021 as the growth of goods imports will outpace export growth. We expect that
the 2021 goods trade deficit (according to UkrStat methodology) will swell to
USD 8.3 bln (from USD 4.9 bln in 2020).