Ukraine goods trade deficit reaches USD 0.9 bln in 4M17

Uraine’s trade deficit in goods widened to USD 888 mln in 4M17, or nearly last year’s level of a USD 932 mln deficit, the State Statistics Service reported on June 13. Goods exports slowed to 26.8% yoy growth in 4M17 (from 34.4% yoy growth in 3M17), driven by minerals (76% yoy growth), food oil (35% yoy), metals (28% yoy) and food (25% yoy). Imports also eased, but not as sharply, to 24.3% yoy growth in 4M17 (from 27.3% yoy growth in 3M17) in line with energy imports (63% yoy growth), vehicles (52% yoy) and machinery (26% yoy). Non-energy import growth slowed to 15.4% yoy in 4M17 from 18.0% yoy for 3M17.

In 4M17, exports to the CIS countries grew 33.2% yoy and exports to the EU by 21.4% yoy.

Alexander Paraschiy: We see a returning tendency of a widening trade deficit. Exports are slowing on lower commodity prices, while imports remain strong. Meanwhile, the provisional fiscal statistics on customs duty collections indicate a further trade deficit expansion in May. These customs statistics also indicate that exports sped up in May to nearly 23% yoy, but imports grew much faster at nearly 40% yoy.

So these stats indicate the 5M17 trade deficit expanded to nearly USD 1.5 bln, which is twice more than the USD 0.7 bln deficit for 5M16. The development is in line with our initial projections and we are keeping our initial trade deficit forecast unchanged at USD 4.4 bln for 2017 (according to UkrStat methodology).