Ukraine goods trade deficit shrinks to USD 87 mln in January

Ukraine’s goods trade deficit shrunk to USD 86.7 mln in January from USD 307.7 mln a year ago, the State Statistics Service reported on March 17.  It was driven by a 48.1% yoy surge in exports amid slower import growth of 32.4% yoy. Goods exports accelerated on minerals (+75% yoy), metals (+67% yoy) and foods (+67% yoy). Energy imports grew 66% yoy while non-energy imports rose 20% yoy. Non-energy imports reflected mainly machinery import growth of 55% yoy. 

Export growth to the EU sped up to 25.6% yoy, while exports to CIS countries surged 68.5% yoy in January.

Alexander Paraschiy: The January trade figures were better than we expected, owing to high metal prices, as well as upsurge in food exports. They were strong because of a delayed harvest and the upsurge looks more like a one-off effect as we anticipate agri-exports proceeds to ease in the upcoming months. 

The prospects of metal proceeds also are under a big question mark amid the government’s trade blockade with the occupied territories of Donbas. What’s more, we still expect metal prices rolling back through the course of the year. In light of such trends, we are keeping our 2017 trade deficit forecast unchanged at USD 4.4 bln (according to UkrStat methodology).