Ukraine goods trade deficit stays at USD 1.3 bln in October

Ukraine’s goods trade deficit amounted to USD 1.3 bln
in October, staying unchanged from September, the State Statistics Service said
in its preliminary report published on Dec. 16. The seasonally adjusted goods
trade deficit shrank to USD 0.83 bln from a USD 0.91 bln deficit in September,
amid a 4.1% m/m increase in adjusted exports and 1.9% m/m growth in adjusted
imports.

 

In October, goods exports rose 7.3% yoy to USD 4.6 bln
(vs. an 11.6% yoy surge in September). In particular, grain exports advanced
19.9% yoy (vs. a 44.3% yoy jump in September). In addition, exports of vegetable
oils and animal fats increased 5.4% yoy (vs. a 2.6% decline in
September).  At the same time, exports of ferrous metals dropped 8.7% yoy
(vs. a 13.3% yoy decline in September). Machinery exports declined 2.0% yoy
(vs. 13.2% yoy growth in September).

 

Goods imports grew 2.3% yoy to USD 5.8 bln in October
(vs. a 61.6% yoy surge in September). Weak growth in exports was due to a 12.0%
yoy decline in the value of energy products (vs. a 23.4% yoy decline in
September). Meanwhile, imports of road vehicles and aircraft rose 34.2% yoy
(vs. 27.8% yoy in September). Machinery imports picked up 9.1% yoy in October
(vs. 8.8% yoy growth in September).

 

In 10M19, the merchandise trade deficit reached USD
8.5 bln, swelling 5.8% yoy. Goods exports advanced 7.4% yoy to USD 41.6 bln.
Meanwhile, goods imports rose 7.1% yoy to USD 50.1 bln.

 

Exports to the EU increased 6.1% yoy in 10M19, while
EU imports advanced 7.9% yoy. The share of the EU in Ukraine’s exports and
imports amounted to 41.9% and 41.2%, respectively.

 

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Merchandise
import growth remains weak amid the decline in the value of imported energy
products. At the same time, the growth of other import items, like vehicles and
machinery, remains strong.

 

Export growth has cooled as the effect of swelled
grain exports, prompted by a record-high harvest, has worn off. Meanwhile,
there are no signs of improvement in exports of ferrous metals amid an
unfavorable price situation at the global markets. The trend of machinery
exports is highly uneven.

 

The provisional customs statistics released this month
promise that November’s goods trade deficit will shrink to around USD 0.9 bln,
mostly due to the lower value of imports.

 

We are adjusting our 2019 forecast of the goods
trade deficit (according to UkrStat methodology) to USD 10.5 bln from USD 11.5
bln, given the much slower than expected import growth.