Ukraine goods trade surplus reaches USD 0.3 bln in May

Ukraine’s goods trade surplus enlarged to USD 261 mln
in May from USD 33 mln in April, the State Statistics Service announced in a
preliminary report on July 15. The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit
amounted to USD 44 mln (vs. a USD 410 mln deficit in April) amid a 6.4% m/m
growth of adjusted exports and a 0.6% m/m decline in adjusted imports.

Goods exports jumped 61% yoy in May to USD 5.55 bln
(vs. a 40% yoy increase in April). The accelerated growth was mostly driven by
exports of mineral products (+180% yoy) and ferrous metals (+98%).

Goods imports increased 55% yoy to USD 5.29 bln in May
(vs. 56% yoy surge in April). The major contributors to accelerated growth
included vehicles (+80%), chemicals (+61%) and energy products (+42%).

In 5M21, the goods trade deficit amounted to USD 1.1
bln (vs. a deficit of USD 0.9 bln in 5M20); both goods exports and imports
increased 26.1% yoy.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: By and
large, the trends in external goods trade in May were similar to those in
April. A surge in exports of ferrous metals and mineral products is a result of
an incredibly favorable price situation on global markets.

A surge in imports of vehicles is likely caused by a
new wave in the purchase of used automobiles abroad by individuals amid another
extension of tax privileges on their imports. In addition, imports of energy
products are recovering quickly amid growing global prices.

Should the incredibly favorable price situation for
Ukraine’s goods export last for some more months, we are likely to finish the
year with a lower goods trade deficit than we expected at the beginning of the
year. Therefore, our current forecast for the goods trade deficit of USD 8.3
bln in 2021 will be subject to revision. Recall, the goods trade deficit in
2020 amounted to USD 5.1 bln (according to UkrStat methodology).