Ukraine goods trade switches to USD 0.8 bln deficit in February

Ukraine’s goods trade balance reached a USD 777 mln
deficit in February, switching from a surplus of USD 17 mln in January, the State
Statistics Service said in its preliminary report on Apr. 15. The seasonally
adjusted goods trade balance showed a USD 855 mln deficit (76.6% m/m growth
from a USD 484 mln deficit in January) amid a 4.1% m/m drop in adjusted exports
and 4.0% m/m growth in adjusted imports.

In 2M19, the trade deficit reached USD 760 mln, or a
4.4% yoy increase. In 2M19, goods exports advanced 7.9% yoy, slightly outpacing
imports, which improved 7.6% yoy. The agricultural sector remained the major
contributor to export growth. In particular, grain exports surged 62.1% yoy and
finished food product exports picked up 17.0% yoy. At the same time, exports of
ferrous metals and machinery declined 3.0% yoy and 8.4% yoy, respectively.

Road vehicle and aircraft imports surged 77.1% yoy,
being a major contributor to rising imports overall. In addition, imports of
machinery increased 9.0% yoy.

Exports to the EU grew 4.0% yoy in 2M19, while EU
imports jumped 10.2% yoy. The share of the EU in Ukraine’s exports and imports
amounted to 43.4% and 41.6%, respectively.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: We
correctly predicted external trade developments for February, and the goods
trade deficit coincided with our expectations
as well.

Provisional customs statistics released this month
promise the March trade deficit plunge to USD 0.6 bln amid some month-to-month
increase in exports and decline in imports.

We expect the 2019 goods trade deficit (according to
UkrStat methodology) will swell to USD 11.5 bln (from USD 9.8 bln in 2018),
with import growth outpacing export increases.