Ukraine government moves further to undermine EU Association Agreement

Members of parliament (MPs) from Ukraine’s ruling Party of Regions took more steps and made more statements on November 11 to undermine the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. They didn’t attend a scheduled meeting of the legislative and law enforcement parliamentary committee to modify legislation necessary for the agreement, the Ukrayinska Pravda news site reported on November 11.

 

Meanwhile, the parliamentary working group to prepare a bill to arrange the conditions for seeking medical treatment abroad for imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko voted to draft the legislation based on five proposals submitted. MP Inna Bohoslovska circulated on November 11 a list of 25 points for drafting the bill to release Tymoshenko, of which the Party of Regions and opposition disagree on 12 points while agreeing on nine points, Mustafa Nayem of Ukrayinska Pravda reported.

 

The European Court of Human Rights twice rejected Tymoshenko’s appeals to seek medical treatment abroad, Party of Regions MP Volodymyr Oliynyk anounced on November 11, as reported by Ukrayinska Pravda. On May 31, 2012, the Court ruled that the Ukrainian government provided Tymoshenko with appropriate medical treatment and rejected a similar complaint requesting treatment abroad from Tymoshenko on the same day.

 

Another Party of Regions MP Anatoliy Kinakh, sent an open letter to Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych on November 11 in which he reported on plummeting production as a result of the Russian Federation denying supply certificates and access to its market to Ukrainian enterprises, requesting “the immediate use of measures to resolve acute problems in the economy.” The same day, the State Border Service of Ukraine reported the Russian government decided to extend to its entire Ukrainian border those customs measures, consisting of new required certificates, which previously caused long delays for trucks in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (bordering Russia).

 

The Prosecutor General of Ukraine issued a notice of suspicion on November 11 to Serhiy Vlasenko, Tymoshenko’s lead defense attorney, for inflicting bodily injuries against his former wife. A court is scheduled on November 18 to rule on restrictive measures for Vlasenko, including bail and limits on his movement. After police questioning, Vlasenko told reporters that prosecutors are requiring him to return for more questioning on November 12 and 13, when the EU diplomatic mission of former European Parliament Head Pat Cox and former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski will be in Ukraine to may their final conclusions. It’s possible the government will restrict his travel beyond Kyiv, Vlasenko said, which will prevent him to meet with Tymoshenko.

 

Cox and Kwasniewski will deliver their final report on the Ukrainian government’s ability to meet the Association Agreement requirements at the European Parliament on November 13, EU Representative to Ukraine Spokesman David Stulik told the Ukrayinska Pravda news site on November 11. Cox and Kwasniewski will depart Ukraine on November 13 to report to the Conference of European Parliament Presidents, after which they will officially disclose the results of the monitoring mission at a press conference.

 

Zenon Zawada: It’s clear the Yanukovych administration doesn’t intend to release Tymoshenko by November 28-29, when the Eastern Partnership summit will occur in Vilnius. The many statements by leading Party of Regions MPs in recent days offer firm evidence of that, as well as the legal intimidation against Vlasenko and more lawsuits filed against Tymoshenko herself.

 

The Cox-Kwasniewski mission will likely refrain from making any recommendations on what to do with the agreement in its November 13 report to the European Parliament, leaving the decision to the EU member-states themselves. So everything depends upon whether the handful of EU nations who insist on her release as a required condition – Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands – will stick to their convictions.

 

The single hope is that they sign the agreement with the plan of not voting in favor of ratification if Tymoshenko isn’t released afterwards. But Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, who is the leading EU authority on Ukraine, has already said that isn’t an option. Therefore, the events of the past week have extinguished our optimism. We recommend investors prepare for a scenario in which the Association Agreement is shelved.