Ukraine gov’t plans UAH 24.1/USD exchange rate for 2016
9 September 2015
Ukraine’s 2016 budget plan sets an exchange rate at UAH 24.1/USD, Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko stated on Sept. 8, according to the Ukrainian News agency. The Finance Ministry is planning the 2016 general budget deficit at 3.7% of GDP, she said.
Alexander Paraschiy: There is nothing new in Jaresko’s statement as 2016 exchange rate parameters were outlined in memorandum with the IMF. In fact, the IMF was more demanding regarding the national currency, requesting an average UAH 22.5/USD exchange rate next year. Yet the Cabinet stuck to its initial forecast for planning the budget.
The Cabinet projection is close to our view as we believe the hryvnia will keep weakening in 2016 on the back of economic stabilization and resumed demand for imports. We expect an average 2016 exchange rate of UAH 25.7/USD and year-end rate of UAH 26.5/USD.
