Ukraine grain harvest expected to rise 15% in 2021

Ukrainian farmers
will harvest about 75.1 mmt of grains and 19.1 mmt of oil crops in 2021,
according to a forecast published by Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotskyi on
Mar. 4. The ministry’s forecast implies a 14.7% growth in the grain harvest and
3.2% increase in the oil crops harvest.

Based on the weather
conditions and condition of winter crops, the ministry forecasts the harvest
volume of corn at about 33.2 mmt (a 9.6% growth yoy), wheat harvested volume of
29.5 mmt (up 17.5% yoy), and barley harvested volume of 9.2 mmt (up 17.9% yoy)
in 2021. Also, the ministry forecasts the sunflower seed harvest will increase
3.1% yoy to 13.5 mmt, the soybean harvest will rise 10.7% yoy to 3.1 mmt and
the rapeseed harvest will be flat yoy, or about 2.6 mmt in 2021.

The forecast for
harvested volumes implies that the corn yield will increase 11.6% yoy to 6.3
t/ha, the wheat yield will rise 10.7% yoy to 4.3 t/ha, the barley yield will
increase 13.2% yoy to 2.7 t/ha, the sunflower seed yield will rise 6.4% to 2.2
t/ha, the soybean yield will grow 10.7% yoy to 2.4 t/ha, and the rapeseed yield
will rise 10.0% yoy to 2.6 t/ha in 2021.

Andriy Perederey: The
ministry’s forecast looks reasonable taking into account the favorable weather
and satisfactory conditions of winter crops so far. While the risk of adverse
weather later in the year cannot be ignored, it is still very likely that the
2021 harvest will be much better in Ukraine than in 2020, when a three-year low
result was recorded. That said, we expect that the agricultural segment will
have a positive influence on Ukraine’s GDP growth this year.