Ukraine gross external debt rises to 77.3% of GDP in 9M13

Ukraine’s gross external debt increased 2.5% qoq (USD 3.4 bln) in 3Q13 to USD 137.7 bln, or 77.3% of GDP by Oct. 1, according to a National Bank of Ukraine report released on Dec. 19.  Short-term external debt grew 5.0%, or USD 3.1 bln throughout the quarter.

Alexander Paraschiy: Trade credit on natural gas supplies was the main reason for the gross external debt increase in 3Q13. Nearly 4.4 bcm of technical gas was supplied in September to Dmytro Firtash on consignment. What more, Ukraine did not manage to pay $882 mln for natural gas supplied in August, which was also reflected in the statistics.

In light of the continued increase in trade credit for natural gas through October-November, we should expect gross external debt to keep growing. A new placement of Eurobonds (USD 3.0 bln) for Russians will only strengthen the trend. By the end of the year, gross external debt should break the 80% GDP ceiling.