Ukraine industrial growth slows to 3.5% in April

Ukraine’s industrial output growth slowed to 3.5% yoy from 4.8% yoy in the prior month, the State Statistics Service reported on May 23. Industrial growth adjusted for calendar days was 3.7% yoy in April compared to 4.2% yoy in March. For 4M16, industry grew 3.7% yoy.

Metals remained the key driver of industrial growth, rising 15.5% yoy through the month (down from 19.1% in March). Mining growth slowed to 3.0% yoy from 5.7% yoy in March, while machinery production worsened to 0.4% yoy growth from 8.7% yoy in the prior month. Chemical output improved to 0.9% yoy after a 7.4% yoy decline a month ago, while utilities continued falling (-5.0% yoy vs. -2.3% yoy in March).

Industrial output in the partially occupied Luhansk region improved 2.2x yoy in April. Production growth in the Donetsk region was less impressive at 8.7% yoy. 

We are keeping our industrial output forecast unchanged at +2.0% yoy for 2016.