Ukraine industrial output falls 5.2% in March

Industrial production fell 5.2% yoy in March, according to Ukrainian state statistics released on April 17. The machinery and chemical industries declined the fastest with 20.3% yoy and 23.0% yoy, respectively. Metallurgy shrunk 7.0% yoy. Food production dipped into the red at -3.1% yoy. On the positive side, energy production strengthened 0.5% yoy and mining improved at the same rate.

Alexander Paraschiy: Ukraine’s first-quarter industrial production drop of 5.0% yoy was much worse than we anticipated. Some revival of external markets didn’t reach Ukraine’s core industries. Exporters are suffering from strengthened competition and rising protectionism in the key markets. What’s more, the expected world economic revival for 2H13 seems to be delayed. Against this backdrop, we are revising our industrial production forecast down to a 0.7% decline yoy for 2013. This estimate still presumes at least modest industrial growth in the year’s second half.