Ukraine industrial output increases 2% yoy in March

Ukraine’s industrial output rose 2.1% yoy in March,
after a 1.8% yoy fall in February, due to restored growth in manufacturing and
continuing growth in mining, the State Statistics Service reported on Apr. 23.
Seasonally adjusted output increased 2.4% m/m. In 1Q19, industrial output
declined 0.9% yoy.

Manufacturing output jumped 5.0% yoy in March (after a
1.5% yoy drop in February). In particular, food production advanced 7.3% yoy
(vs. 0.6% increase in February) and metallurgical production surged 8.9% yoy
(vs. 3.7% yoy drop in February). Meanwhile, output in machinery declined 1.5%
yoy (vs. 4.3% yoy in February).

Mining output increased 1.8% yoy in March (vs 1.6% yoy
growth in February). In particular, oil and natural gas output increased 5.0%
yoy, and iron ore production rose 1.6% yoy. The supply of electricity and
natural gas declined 8.1% yoy in March.

Regionally, growth was strongest in the Rivne (26.2%
yoy), Vinnytsia (18.6% yoy) and Mykolayiv (12.2% yoy) regions. Declines were
steepest in the Khmelnytskiy (-18.4% yoy), Zhytomyr (-9.5% yoy) and Kyiv (-5.6%
yoy) regions.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The March
increase of industrial production came as a positive surprise. We will need to
see the results of some more months in order to confirm the sustainability of
positive trends in food and metallurgical production. Without intensification
in these sectors, our forecast of industrial growth of 2.0% yoy in 2019 will not
be attainable.