Ukraine industry declines 4.9% in July

Ukraine’s industrial output declined 4.9% yoy in July, resulting in a 5.3% yoy drop for 7M13, according to state statistics released on August 19. Steel production increased 1.6% yoy in July while other core industries remained in the red: chemicals -18.8% yoy, machinery -11.5% yoy, energy -1.4% yoy, and mining -0.9% yoy.

Alexander Paraschiy: Despite the better figures for steel, they don’t reflect a recovery as much as a low statistical base effect. To make matters worse, the unfolding trade conflict with Russia promises even more problems for the industry. In this respect, we reaffirm our industrial output forecast at -2.5% yoy for 2013 with a possible negative revision if the trade conflict with Russia deepens.