Ukraine industry drops 0.3% in September
24 October 2017
Ukraine’s industrial output dropped 0.3% yoy in September owing to a slumping machinery sector after 1.2% yoy growth in August, the State Statistics Service reported on Oct. 23. Besides the drop in machinery production (which slid 0.3% yoy after 10.4% yoy growth in August), the utility output decline deepened to -3.4% yoy from -2.8% yoy in August.
Other core sectors improved, including chemicals (33.4% yoy growth from 33.0% yoy in August) and metals (2.2% yoy growth from 1.0% yoy in August). The mining slump slowed to -2.8% yoy from -6.8% yoy in August.
Regionally, the strongest declines were in Ukrainian-controlled Luhansk (-37.0% yoy), Sumy (-15.8% yoy), Kyiv city (-12.1% yoy) and Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk (-10.9% yoy). The best regions were Ivano-Frankivsk (26.0% yoy growth), Rivne (21.9% yoy), Chernivtsi (16.1% yoy) and Odesa (11.8% yoy).
In 9M17, industrial output fell 0.3% yoy.
Alexander Paraschiy: Metal production is improving in line with rising metal prices at the global markets. Mining also looks better after plunging at the start of the year when trade relations with occupied Donbas were broken. Only machinery spoiled the story with its sudden decline. Machinery has been volatile in recent years, so we do not see this decline as a trend but rather as another temporary trough. However, the September figures mean that industrial output will be close to zero in 2017. Our initial forecast of 1.4% yoy growth looks unrealistic even if industry starts rebounding in October.
