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Ukraine industry falls 5.0% in June

Ukraine industry falls 5.0% in June

18 July 2014

Ukraine’s industrial output fell 5.0% yoy in June, deepening from a 2.1% yoy drop in the prior month, according to state statistics released on July 17. All core sectors reported declines: chemicals (-21.7% yoy), machinery (-20.8% yoy), metallurgy (-5.6% yoy), mining (-4.8% yoy), and utilities (-1.5% yoy).

 

Alexander Paraschiy: The tendency is in line with our expectations. In May, the declines slowed to 2.1% (-6.0% yoy in April), but that was totally due to a low statistical base. So it’s no surprise to see industrial output return to a deeper plunging rate in June and the result could have been even worse given the war in eastern Ukraine. Nevertheless, the declines are getting tamer than in March and April, when the Russian invasion began. Against this backdrop, we are keeping our industrial output forecast unchanged at -5.1% yoy for 2014.

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