Ukraine industry falls 5% in October

Ukraine’s industrial output fell 5.0% yoy in October after dropping 5.1% yoy in the prior month, the State Statistics Service reported on Nov 18. For 10M15, industry declined 15.4% yoy (-16.4% yoy for 9M15).

Strengthened statistics on chemical production (0% yoy in October vs. -15% yoy in September) as well as an October slowdown in the decline of machinery production (-9.3% yoy vs. -9.6% yoy) and utilities (-4.9% yoy vs. -5.4% yoy) were the main reasons for the minor improvement. At the same time, mining slowed to +1.9% yoy (compared to +3.2% yoy in September) and metals switched in red to -4.9% yoy (+3.0% yoy). Output in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions continued to recover at +8.7% yoy and +23.0% yoy, respectively.

Alexander Paraschiy: Sliding resource prices, as well as the effect of a low comparative base, remain the key factors that defined industrial performance in October. Sinking global steel prices were reflected immediately in metallurgical performance. At the same time, the improved chemical production looks like a purely comparative base effect. With October’s performance is slightly better than we expected, we improve our industrial output forecast to -13.8% yoy for 2015 from our previous estimate of -14.6% yoy.