Ukraine introduces 15.2% anti-dumping duty on Russian long steel

Ukraine’s Interagency Commission on International
Trade imposed a 15.2% anti-dumping duty on imports of rebar and wire rod from
Russia, Uriadoviy Kurier, the official government newspaper, reported on Dec.
29. The duty will become effective on Feb. 27, 60 days after its publication,
and will stay in force for five years. The decision marks the end of an
investigation that was initiated in February 2017 on a complaint by
ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih.

The 2017 volumes of Ukrainian imports from Russia were
13.5 kt for rebar (26.0 kt in 2016) and 14.0 kt for wire rod (14.7 kt in 2016),
estimated Metal Expert, a steel industry consultancy. Ukraine’s 11M17
consumption volumes were 820 kt of rebar (806 kt in 2016) and 395 kt of wire
rod (432 kt in 2016), according to Metal Expert. Ukraine’s 11M17 production
volumes were 2.6 mmt for rebar (3.0 mmt in 2016) and 1.2 mmt for wire rod (1.5
mmt in 2016).

Dmytro Khoroshun: The import
volumes of rebar and wire rod from Russia are low in comparison with both
domestic consumption and production volumes. Therefore, Ukrainian producers
will have little immediate benefits from the protective measures. The two
plants that are still under Ukraine’s control and that produce rebar and wire
rod are ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih (produces almost 100% of rebar and 80-90% of
wire rod) and Dniprovskyy Steel, which was restarted in late July and has a
part of its products resold by Metinvest (METINV), Ukraine’s leading steel
holding.

Considering the global trend of increasing trade
protectionism, as well as Russia’s aggression in eastern Ukraine, this
development is a welcome step for the Ukrainian steel industry. However, the
potential for further substitution of steel imports from Russia for domestic
Ukrainian production is limited, in our opinion. This is because rebar and wire
rod are the less sophisticated products for which Ukraine has ample production
capacity. In contrast, other steel products that Ukraine imports from Russia,
such as cold-rolled flats (81 kt in 2016, according to Metal Expert),
galvanized coils (11 kt), pre-painted coils (12 kt), sections and bars (168 kt)
and rails (13 kt) are more sophisticated rolled products for which Ukraine
might not have production capacities of similar quality.