Ukraine is at coronavirus infection peak, Shmyhal says

Ukraine is currently at the peak, or plateau, of the
coronavirus infection, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said in an interview with
Ukrainian state radio broadcast on May 5. The peak should conclude on May 8-9
if the severe quarantine upheld, he said, given that the infection rate has
stabilized to 300-500 cases daily. “That is to say, this is practically the
beginning of the conclusion of the epidemic for Ukraine in medical terms,” he
said. At the same time, Ukraine will likely extend its quarantine, in relaxed
forms, beyond May 22 (the third extension so far) since the extended on May 4
the pandemic regime and global quarantine for two more months.

Meanwhile, the cabinet is currently revising its decision
to launch the first phase of the quarantine relaxation as of May 11 to include
more enterprises, said on May 5 the website of the Economic Development, Trade
and Agriculture Ministry. The final decision will be approved at the weekly
cabinet meeting on Wednesday.

The ministry’s statement came after a May 4 video
announcement by President Zelensky warning the public against impatience with
quarantine measures. “According to research, a full cancelation of the
quarantine will have shocking consequences. If we return to a regular rhythm of
life tomorrow, this will lead to 120,000 more deaths until the year end. That’s
precisely why relaxing the quarantine can’t be premature,” he said. Ukraine
could have had 200,000 infections, instead of 12,000, if not for Ukraine’s
severe quarantine imposed in mid-March, he said. He credited timely
preventative measures, such as the quarantine, and Ukrainian medical workers,
with the nation’s success of containing the virus.

Coronavirus infections rose by 487 cases, or 3.8%,
from the prior day, to a total of 13,184 as of noon, May 6, according to the
Center for Public Health of the Health Ministry of Ukraine. An estimated 327
people have died from the COVID-19 disease, an increase of 11 cases from the
prior day. Recovered patients rose 118 to a total of 2,097 cases.

Zenon Zawada: The
Zelensky administration is handling the coronavirus situation like most other
political problems it has to deal with, such as the healthcare system reform, securing the IMF loan program
or even the war in Donbas. This is a populist approach in which it is trying to
appeal to the public’s desire for easy short-term solutions, but without
violating critical international requirements. It’s these international
institutions and their requirements which have saved the Zelensky
administration from making disastrous political mistakes, particularly in preventing capitulations to the reckless billionaire Ihor
Kolomoisky, as well as to the relentless Russian President Putin.

The government is trying to accommodate Ukrainian
business largely out of necessity, understanding that many will resume
operations as of May 11 regardless of whether they’re among the chosen for the first phase
of quarantine relaxations. And the Kyiv government is concerned that local politicians will capitalize
on the resentment of SMEs of selective quarantine restrictions, widely
considered to be unfair.

The next big quarantine issue will be Ukrainians
seeking to travel to work abroad in greater numbers, the demand for which will
swell just as the first phase of quarantine relaxations takes effect. We expect
the government to continue its policy of selectively allowing
flights of authorized workers abroad in line with overall
public sentiment. The government will become less restrictive as public
pressure mounts, but remaining within the bounds of international requirements.