Ukraine martial law to be extended, Moscow expert says

The most likely political scenario in Ukraine is martial
law being extended, Denis Denisov, the director of the Moscow-based Institute
for Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflict Studies, said in a text published on
the iz.ru news site on Dec. 12. With the martial law decree expiring on Dec.
26, the Poroshenko administration will be looking for pretexts to extend it, he
said. “Moreover, this prolongation can be carried out regularly because the
threat can always be found,” he said. “And the Ukrainian government doesn’t
have to look far to find it.”

Moreover, the threats that the Poroshenko
administration alleged exist from Russia have yet to be liquidated, Denisov
wrote. “So if there is a war occurring, according to Poroshenko’s statements,
then what discussion about the law ending can there be?,” he said. The
Poroshenko administration could draft a law to conduct the election campaign
and voting during martial law, he said. That will enable the president to
employ state resources (known locally as “adminresurs”) to produce an electoral
victory.

Zenon Zawada: We agree
that it’s likely that martial law will be either extended or renewed during the
next three months. It will be rather easy for President Poroshenko to find the
necessary pretext, provoked or unprovoked. The advantages he stands to reap from
martial law, some of which were mentioned by Denisov, could be too lucrative to
pass up. Martial law will make it easier for Poroshenko to manipulate the
necessary state resources, particularly with his ally Roman Nasirov –
reinstated as State Fiscal Service head this week – now able to direct tax
inspectors to apply pressure. Certainly, local election commission members will
take advantage of the millions of “ghost voters” (or “dead souls” as they’re
called locally) who have emigrated or died, as Denisov pointed out. As for
getting parliamentary approval, Poroshenko has consistently demonstrated he can
piece together a majority when it’s necessary.

If polls continue to indicate a large gap between
Poroshenko and Tymoshenko (particularly exit polls on election day), then
Tymoshenko’s inevitable allegations of vote fraud and election-rigging will
have legitimate grounds. The only issue is whether enough citizens will protest
the results if they are recognized to have been falsified. After observing the
Yellow Vest protests in Paris, we view it as possible that the Russian
government will sponsor election fraud protests in Ukraine’s Russophile cities.
Odesa, Ukraine’s third-largest city, and Zaporizhia, Ukraine’s sixth-largest
city, are particularly vulnerable, experts have said in the last week.