Ukraine monetary base inches up 0.2% m/m in July

Ukraine’s monetary base inched up 0.2% m/m (UAH 0.6
bln) to UAH 420.6 in July, after a 3.1% m/m increase in June, the National Bank
of Ukraine (NBU) stated in a provisional report released on Aug. 9. The
monetary base has increased 5.4% YTD. Money supply continued to increase in
July, growing 1.6% m/m (1.3% YTD) to UAH 1,229 bln.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: July’s
growth in the monetary base was very moderate despite a significant rise in
public spending, which resulted in an 79% m/m plunge in treasury residuals (to
UAH 2.0 bln from UAH 9.1 bln). The main restraining factor was the central
bank’s net currency sale of USD 64.4 mln on the ForEx.

We expect to see a 6.1% YTD increase of the
monetary base in 2018 (vs. 4.6% YTD in 2017) amid a controlled budget deficit
and gross reserves growth.