Ukraine’s monetary base increased 3.1% m/m, or UAH
12.7 bln in June, after a 4.8% m/m increase in May, the National Bank of
Ukraine (NBU) stated in a provisional report. The monetary base has increased
5.2% YTD. Money supply continued to increase in June, growing 1.1% m/m (0.1%
YTD).
Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Rising
public spending, which resulted in an 18% m/m drop of treasury residuals (from
UAH 11.5 bln to UAH 9.4 bln), was the major reason for the monetary base
increase in June. Another factor was the cenral bank’s net currency purchase of
USD 24 mln on the ForEx market.
Month-to-month fluctuations in the monetary base
are likely through the year end. We expect to see a 6.1% YTD increase in 2018
(vs. 4.6% YTD in 2017) amid a controlled budget deficit and gross reserves
growth.