Ukraine needs to remain on current course to defeat Russia, Hrymchak says

Ukraine needs to remain on its current political
course in order for Russia to capitulate in its military occupation of Ukraine,
Yuriy Hrymchak, the deputy minister for temporarily occupied areas and
displaced persons, told the apostrophe.ua news site in an interview published
on Aug. 16. “If we don’t screw up everything that we’ve done for the last four
years – the army, reforms, changes – then, as our and Russian experts say –
Russia may not survive a second term of President Petro Poroshenko. Therefore,
it’s necessary to understand that money will be hurled this way, as well as all
possibilities to protect its interests,” Hrymchak said of Russia. He also
added, “We need to hold this way further, and then they might not survive.”

Hrymchak also criticized the Russian-oriented parties
who are campaigning based on the promise to return peace to Ukraine. “More
often than not, this is simply chatter that we need peace, I have a
step-by-step plan and similar things,” he said. “But when you attempt to review
these steps and understand the details, you are told that this is secret
information and negotiations are being held.” Hrymchak acknowledged that he was
wrong in claiming last August that Russia would withdraw from Donbas
in 2018, but then said that it would happen by the October
2019 parliamentary elections, “at maximum.” At minimum, Russia will remain
until the March presidential vote, he said.

Zenon Zawada: Former
president Yushchenko, and now Poroshenko adviser Hrymchak, revealed in
interviews this week that the president’s re-election strategy is to instill
fear in the public that all could be lost to Russia if he doesn’t return to
office. Poroshenko’s allies also intend to portray the current leading
candidate, Yulia Tymoshenko, as someone who has a history of advocating Russian
President Putin’s interests in Ukraine. This strategy is perhaps the single way
that Poroshenko can boost his currently dismal poll ratings, in which he’s
ranked as fourth or fifth. The tone of these interviews, and the words being
used, confirm our longheld view that Poroshenko
and his allies are terrified of a possible Tymoshenko presidency. The political
attacks will intensify once September rolls around.

For the last year, Hrymchak has been promising a
Russian withdrawal from Donbas, as if it were a carrot on a stick for the
public to keep supporting Poroshenko. This approach has the potential to
repulse a large portion of the cynical electorate, which still remembers
Poroshenko claiming an end to the Donbas war in two weeks. Hrymchak has now
revised his expectation for a withdrawal. We are confident Russia will not
withdraw from Donbas by October 2019, especially with a big Russian-oriented
faction coming to Ukraine’s parliament. And while we said a year ago that Putin will
have to choose
between withdrawing from Donbas or mounting an offensive, it’s now apparent that Putin will be
working in the coming years
towards gaining influence in the legislatures of Ukraine and Europe to simply
relax or remove the sanctions altogether. Only intensified Western sanctions
can undermine this plan.