Ukraine organized retail trade falls 1.5% in February

Organized retail trade in Ukraine fell 1.5% yoy in February compared to +0.1% yoy in the prior month, according to a March 21 UkrStat report. For 2M15, organized retail trade dropped 0.6% yoy. In 2015, organized retail trade plunged 21.0% yoy and private consumption slumped 20.2% yoy. Organized retail trade is defined as that which is officially registered in Ukraine.

Alexander Paraschiy: We did not expect positive news about retail trade and private consumption, yet the February statistics were weaker than projected. Most likely, the main reason was the hryvnia devaluation (Ukraine’s currency fell to UAH 27.3/USD as of mid-February from UAH 24/USD at the year’s start). The slight decrease does not change much our view on consumption prospects. We will keep anticipating near-zero performance of consumption in 1H16 with slight improvement in 2H16. We project private consumption increasing 1.8% yoy in 2016.