Ukraine parliament approves detention and arrest of Kyiv judge

Ukraine’s parliament voted on June 30 to allow for the detention and arrest of Anton Chernushenko, the chief judge of the Kyiv Appellate Court who faces criminal charges for interfering with the court’s automated case assignment system. The vote was supported by five of six parliamentary factions, with the exception of the Russian-oriented Opposition Bloc. This party has the support of billionaire Rinat Akhmetov, the owner of Ukraine’s biggest private natural gas exploration and production company. Chernushenko alleged he was pressured by the Presidential Administration to issue rulings confiscating the company’s property on behalf of the state.

Zenon Zawada: The swiftness and efficiency with which the parliament has dealt with Chernushenko reveals that it can arrest suspects in a timely fashion if the key players want it done. In light of how Serhiy Kliuyev – among the insiders of the Yanukovych government – was allowed to flee without arrest in early June, one can only draw the conclusion that Kliuyev reached an arrangement with the president and/or prime minister. Despite its ability to take swift action, none of the Yanukovych entourage has been arrested or prosecuted for crimes related to the EuroMaidan murders or massive financial machinations. Finance Minister Yuriy Kolobov was arrested in Spain and has yet to be extradited.

Top leaders are engaging in window-dressing in the fight against corruption, and conduct this campaign in patchwork form, targeting separate bodies with only half-measures. Such cynicism is a bigger threat to the government’s future than the Donbas war. Poroshenko’s support is already low, at 32 percent of those intending to vote in the October elections (quite standard for a sitting president) and 14 percent of all those polled (by KIIS in late May). His support will deteriorate further as this political status quo is maintained and the public becomes exhausted from the war.

We see domestic political turmoil coming to a boil in the next six to twelve months, which we expect the Russians to exacerbate and fully exploit. As we’ve noted before, we see a high risk that Poroshenko’s political regime will not end in success, given the path he’s chosen.