Ukraine parliamentary majority opposes coalition with opposition

The pro-presidential Party of Regions parliamentary faction, led by Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, won’t support a new “technical” government led by a prime minister of the opposition party, the Kommersant-Ukraina website reported on Feb. 14, citing three MPs speaking on behalf of the faction.

Presidential Administration Head Andriy Klyuyev likely had a Jan. 26 meeting with imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko at her penal colony, according to recent news reports. He arranged the meeting after “unprecedented pressure from European and American diplomats,” reported the Ukrayinska Pravda news site on Feb. 14. Three days after the alleged meeting, Tymoshenko released a letter to Fatherland faction demanding an immediate halt to negotiations and refraining from returning the 2004 constitutional amendments.

On Feb. 13, Tymoshenko was visited by her longtime ally Oleksandr Turchynov and Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the chair of her parliamentary faction Fatherland, who explained that the former prime minister is convinced that the Yanukovych administration will never agree to renew a balance of forces in Ukraine. Turchynov and Yatsenyuk said they convinced her of the need to reinstate the 2004 constitutional amendments creating a parliamentary-presidential republic and shifting much power away from Yanukovych. They will raise such a vote before the parliament.

The new government will have to approve a Cabinet action plan for economic and political measures, as well as renewed IMF cooperation, signing the EU Association Agreement and implementing a visa-free regime with the EU, Yatsenyuk said. “In the event that the government, or the MPs loyal to the government, declines to vote for a peaceful means of resolving the crisis, that means the issue won’t be resolved in the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) … but in the streets,” Yatsenyuk said.

Zenon Zawada: A coalition government led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk would not have been technical, reconciliatory nor successful. It comes as no surprise that the Party of Regions opposes it. The EuroMaidan protest would have opposed it as well. The U.S. government deserves respect for attempting to prop up such a coalition but it’s not realistic, in our view. Nor was it realistic to expect Klyuyev to compromise with Tymoshenko, whose stubbornness and unwilling to compromise is the reason behind her popularity. It’s revealing that rather than lead some kind of an effort, she demanded a halt to negotiations, confirming just how difficult the situation is.

Returning the 2004 constitutional amendments is the only way to resolve the crisis peacefully because it would be the first major step in the removal of Yanukovych as president. His power will be gradually diminished with the formation of an opposition government that has no obligation to work with him or his representatives in a coalition. It’s unclear at this point whether there are enough votes in the parliament to support the measure, but it’s clear that Yanukovych will do everything to undermine this outcome.

The ideal prime minister will be a neutral figure, independent of political parties, who can lead a technical government of experts (ideally) to address Ukraine’s core macroeconomic problems, which include a looming currency crisis, approaching budget crisis and possible sovereign default. We see confectionary magnate Petro Poroshenko as the most likely candidate, considering his extensive business and political experience (without belonging to any particular party).

If the vote fails, we see no other realistic peaceful political solution than the formation of two parallel governments, which has already begun. Afterwards, it’ll be just a matter of deciding which territory belongs to which government, a process that’s in its infant stage with calls for federalization and separation from politicians. It’s possible for two parallel governments to operate within the borders of a single state, similar to the structure of Bosnia-Herzegovina.