Ukraine PM promises to resign if anti-corruption court bill fails

Ukrainian PM Volodymyr Groysman threatened to resign
in case the parliament doesn’t approve legislation to create an independent
anti-corruption court, he told a joint press briefing with the parliamentary
speaker on June 4. “I, as prime minister, made a decision: if this court –
fair, independent – isn’t created, I will resign,” he said, as cited by
Interfax-Ukraine. He also said he will talk today to the leaders of the
parliamentary factions about the legislation. In his turn, Speaker Andriy
Parubiy said that he will do all his best to ensure approval of the
anti-corruption court legislation this Thursday, pravda.com.ua reported.

Recall, approval of the legislation creating a High
Anti-Corruption Court in line with IMF demands is the key requirement for
receiving a fifth loan tranche this summer. One contested point remains
regarding the ability of foreign experts to have the final say
in approving judges to the court, Parubiy said on May 24.

Alexander Paraschiy: Groysman’s
announcement indicates he’s well aware of the risks posed by failing to secure
the IMF tranche this month and he wants nothing to do with the potentially dire
consequences. He knows that no IMF tranche will also mean no loans from the EU
and the World Bank in 2019. That also means Ukraine’s international reserves
will fall below the level of three months of future imports no later than 1Q19.
That will also heighten risks for the Ukrainian currency, prompt an unavoidable
downgrade of Ukraine’s credit rating and raise the sovereign debt risk.
Needless to say, Groysman or any other ambitious politician won’t want to be
Ukraine’s prime minister under such conditions.

With his statement, Groysman has joined the NBU head in warning of the
severe consequences for Ukraine’s economy if the IMF deal falls through. Taking
into account that most, if not all of the top decision-makers are well aware of
the risks for Ukraine from such failure, we remain optimistic about the IMF
deal in late June or mid-July at the very latest.

We should add that Groysman has shown himself to be
no technocrat, but a populist politician eager to remain active in Ukrainian
politics for years to come. Yet any resignation that he might take (he is also
reported to have considered resigning to avoid natural gas price hikes) won’t
help his lack of popularity. Lacking charisma or any signature policy,
Groysman’s two years as prime minister have failed to propel him to political
stardom. So far, that is.