Ukraine PM reports 2.5% GDP growth in July

Ukraine’s GDP increased 2.5% in July, the Facebook page of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov reported on August 16. The source also mentioned that GDP growth improved in 7M13, without offering a figure, and the prime minster expects a minor GDP gain by the year’s end.

Alexander Paraschiy: It is difficult to say how reliable this information is since Ukraine’s state statistics service stopped estimating monthly GDP more than four years ago. But it probably makes provisional estimates for internal use.

If the information about GDP growth is true, industrial output in July (data to be released today) should be at higher-than-expected, near-zero growth throughout the month. However, industrial power consumption data (refer to our news from August 13) suggest that industrial production figures didn’t likely improve in July. A record-high harvest can be the only reason for a positive real sector performance, according to our reading of the economy’s development.