Ukraine PM targeted with leaks of sensitive December meeting

Ukrainian Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk has
acknowledged that both him and President Zelensky lack economic competence, as
revealed by secret recordings that were posted on the Telegram social media
platform on Jan. 15. Honcharuk’s scandalous comments were made during several
meetings with Ukraine’s top economic officials, including National Bank First
Deputy Governor Kateryna Rozhkova, NBU Deputy Governor Dmytro Sologub and
Finance Minister Oksana Markarova, among others. The recordings were made during
meetings on Dec. 16. It’s not clear who leaked the recordings, which were made
public on a YouTube channel.

Among the scandalous remarks, which may or may not
have been edited, Honcharuk used a slang expression to indicate his “complete”
incompetence in economics. Meanwhile, he said President Zelensky has “a very
primitive understanding of economic processes.” The president also “doesn’t
have it in his head” that the hryvnia’s strength is the result of public trust
in “the new, strong president” and “unprecedented trust in the government,”
Honcharuk said, referring to his cabinet in particular. “Until the president
has an answer to this question in his head, he will have an empty space there,”
he said. “And all the junk about (debt) obligations will fly past his head. It
will enter his head only because there is fog there.”

In an attempt at damage control, Honcharuk published a
video statement the morning of Jan. 16 highlighting the economic achievements
made under his prime ministership, which include the hryvnia’s ongoing
strengthening, gross international reserves reaching a seven-year high of USD
25 bln, foreign direct investment reaching USD 2.5 bln and consumer inflation
at 4.1% annually. “If this isn’t good news for the country, then I am a total dunce
in economics,” he said, repeating the statement he was recorded as saying.

The same morning, The People’s Servant Parliamentary
Faction Deputy Head Oleksandr Korniyenko said he saw no basis for Honcharuk’s
resignation, while Faction Head David Arakhamia said he believes the released
recordings consisted of excerpts from an actual conversation that were
rearranged, out of their original context.

Zenon Zawada: We believe
the recordings were leaked by political opponents of President Zelensky in
order to discredit him and also undermine the Honcharuk cabinet. What’s most
concerning about Honcharuk’s comments is the very fact that recordings of a
sensitive meeting of high-ranking state officials were leaked onto the
Internet, and likely edited to put comments out of context. Indeed there has
been a disturbing trend in recent months of highly suspect recordings being released to the public to smear figures in sensitive
political situations. We doubt that any of the meeting’s
participants were responsible for the leaks, which means that sensitive
discussions are being recorded in Ukrainian government buildings by unknown
people. It’s not clear where these particular meetings occurred.

As for the remarks themselves, we see more positive
than negative, and nothing all that scandalous. It was recognized by most
political players and observers that both Zelensky and Honcharuk are economic
novices. It’s even refreshing to see the young prime minister being aware of
his limitations. And we don’t see Honcharuk as having any malice towards the
president in his remarks, though they certainly could have been phrased better.

This is not the first time a resignation of a
high-ranking official under the Zelensky presidency was alleged by anonymous
sources, but later denied by the target of the rumors. Such vicious tactics
reflect the intensity of the enemies of Zelensky, which include pro-Kremlin
forces, pro-Western forces, and possibly former Privatbank shareholders. Former
President Poroshenko indicated as much this morning, directly mentioning Igor
Kolomoisky as the possible organizer of such leaks in comments that lent
support to the embattled Honcharuk.

We don’t expect any resignations ahead of the
annual World Economic Forum in Davos on Jan. 21-24. Yet Honcharuk will be on
thin ice in the coming months, during which he will have to redeem himself
somehow not only in the eyes of the president, but also the public.