28 October 2014
The People’s Front party led by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk leads the vote count for the early parliamentary elections held on Oct. 26, according to the Central Election Commission of Ukraine. The People’s Front has 22.0 percent of the vote, compared to 21.7 percent earned by the Poroshenko Bloc, led by the Ukrainian president, with 85 percent of the ballots counted as of 9:30 a.m. The Self-Reliance party, led by Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi, has earned 10.9 percent, the Opposition Bloc has 9.5 percent, Oleh Liashko’s Radical Party has 7.5 percent and the Fatherland party has 5.7 percent.
The People’s Front party is ready to take the lead in forming the coalition, which should consist of all the democratic political forces elected to parliament, said on television on Oct. 27 Justice Minister Pavlo Petrenko, who is a party member. President Petro Poroshenko is actively involved in talks to form the next coalition government, said on television on Oct. 27 Svyatoslav Tsegolko, his press secretary. He has already met with Yatsenyuk and Sadovyi.
The Fatherland party, led by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, has yet to be approached in forming the coalition, said on Oct. 27 Oleksandra Kuzhel, a party member. Earlier in the day, Yuriy Lutsenko, an advisor to the president, said the Putinist Opposition Bloc and populist Radical Party won’t be invited to forming the coalition.
Zenon Zawada: We expect a firmly pro-European coalition government will emerge between the three top qualifying parties (Poroshenko Bloc, People’s Front and Self-Reliance), with the Opposition Bloc representing the pro-Putin forces. The Radical Party will occupy the opposition populist, radical niche that is being vacated by the Freedom party, which was reported by all four exit polls to have qualified for parliament (at about 6 percent) but now looks as though it will barely miss the mark, having earned 4.7 percent of the vote.
The People’s Front first-place finish in the elections all but ensures that Yatsenyuk remains as prime minister, which is a relief to Western leaders, many of whom have endorsed his leadership and financial skills, such as Victoria Nuland, the assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs. Yatsenyuk remaining as prime minister means that Ukraine will maintain stable and constructive relations with the West and its financial institutions, such as the IMF, with which Yatsenyuk worked closely in rescuing the Ukrainian economy this year.
Despite the second-place finish of his political party, Poroshenko might still be able to form the 300-vote constitutional majority he had been seeking to amend the Ukrainian Constitution for his promised “tectonic changes.” Yet Yatsenyuk remaining as prime minister, and the first-place finish of his party, will ensure that Poroshenko doesn’t abuse this constitutional majority for his own ends, which had become a threat after he appointed many among his entourage to key government posts in the last few months.
Poroshenko has sent some early signals that he may be serious about political reform. He has declared that the next Cabinet of Ministers won’t be formed based on party quotas, which implies that the most qualified candidates will be selected. He also dismissed on Oct. 27 Oleh Rafalskiy, a deputy head of the Presidential Administration who had served the administration of former President Viktor Yanukovych. Rafalskiy’s dismissal would have been required under the newly approved lustration legislation, which required the dismissal of top Yanukovych officials.
As part of the lustration effort, newly appointed Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak dismissed on Oct. 25 three top-ranking defense officials and Prosecutor General Vitaliy Yarema dismissed one deputy assistant and 131 employees on Oct. 23. Time will tell whether the president has the political will to conduct the dramatic reforms necessary for the Ukrainian state to survive.