Ukraine president pardons imprisoned police chief

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych signed a decree the morning of April 7 pardoning former Internal Affairs Minister Yuriy Lutsenko and former Ecology Minister Heorhiy Filipchuk, releasing them from prison. Lutsenko served 28 months out of a four-year sentence for abuse of authority when serving as the chief of Ukraine’s 200,000-plus national police force. Lutsenko said no conditions were placed upon his release and that he intended to participate in politics, though he said he wouldn’t compete in the 2015 presidential election.

EU leaders commended Yanukovych for the pardon. Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, known as the EU’s Ukraine watchdog, called the move “a good first step” that requires more. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called it “a step in the right direction” and a “hopeful signal ahead of the Eastern Partnership summit” scheduled for November.

Western leaders condemned the conviction and imprisonment of Lutsenko and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko as politically motivated, while European Union (EU) leaders made their release a requirement for signing the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement in November. Tymoshenko remains imprisoned in the 20th month in a seven-year sentence, with more criminal charges pending.

Zenon Zawada: With Lutsenko’s release, the Yanukovych administration demonstrated that it’s still serious about signing the Association Agreement, or at least portraying such an appearance as it negotiates with the Russian Federation government for cheaper natural gas. Its commitment became doubtful after several negative events in recent weeks. Most recently, the parliamentary majority led by the ruling Party of Regions abstained from supporting a vote holding the Kyiv City Council and mayoral elections in June, as required by term limits, a politically motivated maneuver aimed at maintaining control of the Kyiv city government.

The Lutsenko pardon is consistent with the Yanukovych administration’s foreign policy tactics of trading demands placed by foreign governments in exchange for short-term concessions and arrangements. In light of this, Lutsenko was released with the goal of placating annoyed EU leaders and renewing their interest in the Association Agreement.

EU leaders are eager to support any positive steps taken by the Yanukovych administration, but Lutsenko’s release is merely a single step forward amidst several steps back and it meets one requirement in an exhaustive list that has yet to be fulfilled. We don’t believe Lutsenko’s release improves the chances that the Yanukovych administration will arrange for Tymoshenko’s release, since she is a more dangerous political enemy. Lutsenko’s release improves by a few notches the Yanukovych adminstration’s chances to sign the Association Agreement in November, which remain in the 40% range.