30 January 2014
Ukraine’s parliament voted on Jan. 29 to approve an amnesty law that was sponsored by the Presidential Administration and rejected by the opposition. President Viktor Yanukovych personally visited the session hall to convince his faction to vote for the bill, in what was reported as a raucous closed-door meeting with widespread dissent. The bill mustered 232 votes out of a necessary 226. Opposition MPs claimed that more than 50 members of the pro-presidential Party of Regions faction were ready to adopt the version that they submitted before the president’s interference.
The opposition labeled the measured as the “hostage law” because it makes the release of EuroMaidan activists – numbering more than 100 at the moment – and the halt of arrests and investigations dependent on the opposition’s willingness to end its protest and relinquish control of all its occupied administrative buildings in the span of 15 days. Otherwise, the law loses its validity. The adopted law stipulates that amnesty starts only after Prosecutor General’s Office issues a special note confirming that all the administrative buildings have been vacated. Inna Bohoslovska, a Party of Regions defector MP, said the law is intended to create a pause during which the Yanukovych administration will regroup, reorganize its forces and launch its latest attempt at a violent dispersal of the EuroMaidan.
The U.S. government is preparing financial sanctions (in addition to visa denials) against Ukrainian government officials should they resort to further violence, reported the Reuters news agency, citing anonymous congressional aides who discussed the measures with White House representatives. The sanctions could also be applied to opposition leaders should they escalate violence in turn. National Intelligence Director James Clapper told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on Jan. 29 that Yanuokvych is “firmly intent” on holding onto power and will likely resort to violence and illegal acts to ensure his re-election in 2015.
Zenon Zawada: The new amnesty law only heightens the crisis instead of offering a solution to it. The 15-day ultimatum in the “hostage law” seems to be intended to work in tandem with the Jan. 28 lawthat cancels the “dictatorship laws” of Jan. 16. Yanukovych has yet to sign the Jan. 28 law and the Constitution gives him 15 days to sign or veto any legal act adopted by parliament, thus giving him another instrument of leverage.
The law confirms that the Yanukovych administration didn’t intend a détente with Azarov’s resignation but instead is fortifying his entourage. EuroMaidan activists are now renewing preparations for a government siege instead of putting away their weapons. We expect the police will intensify its violent terror campaign against peaceful protesters in the coming days in order to boost its hostage count, thus placing more pressure on the opposition to release administrative buildings.