Ukraine public debt reaches 79% of GDP in 2015, MinFin estimates

Ukraine’s public debt reached 79% of GDP by the end of 2015, according to Galyna Pakhachuk, head of the public debt department at the Finance Ministry, reported UNIAN news agency on Feb. 12. “We have finished the year [with debt] at the level of 79% of GDP. Our margin level is 60%. After finalizing the debt operation we have to approve a program for reducing our public debt to the level of 60% of GDP,” Pakhachuk said.

Earlier this month, MinFin reported that Ukraine’s public debt increased to UAH 1572 bln (USD 65.5 bln) by the end of 2015.

Alexander Paraschiy: The number MinFin released gives us some sense of the nominal GDP that officials have in mind for 2015. In particular, MinFin’s numbers suggest that they estimate the 2015 GDP at close to UAH 1990 bln, 3% above our estimates (of UAH 1929 bln). If MinFin’s estimate proves to be more accurate, this would raise the likelihood that Ukraine’s 2016 plan to reach a nominal GDP of UAH 2262 bln (or +13.7% yoy), as assumed in the state budget, will be realized, and so will the government’s state collection plans.