Ukraine reports USD 3.2 bln trade surplus for 9M15

Ukraine’s trade surplus in goods and services reached USD 3.2 bln in 9M15 compared to a USD 3.7 bln surplus a year ago, UkrStat reported on Nov. 16. The balance on services worsened to a USD 3.2 bln surplus from USD 4.1 bln a year ago.  At the same time, the trade surplus on goods improved to USD 737 mln from USD 577 mln a year ago. As usual, Ukrstat adjusted the general balance (goods and services) for tolling operations (USD 729 mln) in what made the general trade balance improvement less impressive. 

Noteworthy, an improvement in the merchandise trade balance for 9M15 was due to a stronger imports decline (-33.6% yoy) compared to slightly slower exports contraction (-32.7% yoy). Exports fell on the back of mineral products (-52.2% yoy), metals (-38.9% yoy) and machinery (-35.5% yoy). Imports slid owing to machinery (-34.0% yoy), chemicals (-27.9% yoy), and the energy bill (-26.3% yoy). For 9M15, non-energy imports of goods fell 36.2% yoy. Exports of goods to CIS countries plunged 51.4% yoy and to the EU by 30.4% yoy.

Alexander Paraschiy: In general, external accounts tendencies remain unchanged. Exports kept falling strongly though the weakened hryvnia kept trade balance statistics in good shape by pulling imports down. At the same time, we anticipate external accounts to worsen somewhat over the upcoming months on the back of stronger gas imports and gradual non-energy imports recovery amid a stabilized economy. For full-year 2015, we anticipate the trade balance on goods to narrow to near zero (USD 137 mln surplus, according to UkrStat methodology) and the balance on services to reach a USD 3.9 bln surplus.