Ukraine retail trade increases 14% in 1H21

Ukrainian retail sales increased 13.8% yoy in 1H21
slowing from 14.3% yoy growth in 5M21, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service
reported on July 20. In June, real retail sales inched up 0.1% m/m and 13.0%
yoy.

The highest growth of retail sales in 1H21 occurred in
Chernivtsi (30.8% yoy), Ternopil (29.4% yoy) and Zakarpattia (26.7% yoy) regions.
The slowest growth rates were in Kharkiv (2.6% yoy), Kirovohrad (8.2% yoy) and
Ukraine-controlled Donetsk (9.4% yoy) regions.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The growth
rate of retail sales declined as the effect of the low comparative base in the
previous year wears off. Nevertheless, the retail growth remains impressive. It
is prompted by the fast growth of wages and constrained alternative consumption
(i.e. travelling).

We expect consumer demand to stay strong in 2021,
allowing retail sales to accelerate to 10% yoy (vs. 7.6% yoy growth in 2020).