Ukraine security council may review bill to adjust strategy in Donbas

The National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine
may review at its session next week legislation to adjust Ukraine’s military
strategy in Donbas and to reintegrate the territory into Ukraine,  said on July 5 Iryna Gerashchenko, the first
deputy speaker of parliament. She didn’t respond to a question on whether the
bill could be approved before the summer recess. The legislation, authored by
council secretary Oleksandr Turchynov, calls for creating a permanent
headquarters with wide authority to conduct military campaigns in Donbas beyond
the legal format of an official war or the current Anti-Terrorist Operation.

Legislation is also being drafted by Ukraine’s
pro-Russian forces for a change in strategy in Donbas that involves a national
referendum on the war, said on July 3 Opposition Bloc MP Vasyl Nimchenko. The
legislation also seeks to adjust the legal status of occupied Donetsk and
Luhansk to protect local communities and to fight corruption, said Nimchenko,
who told a television program that he is drafting the legislation with the help
of Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch with close ties to Russian President
Putin.

Zenon Zawada: Evidence is
mounting that the Poroshenko administration is contemplating a major military
offensive to retake the territory of occupied Donbas, possibly ahead of the
2019 presidential and parliamentary elections. Poroshenko likely discussed this
plan with U.S. military leaders during his mid-June visit to Washington in
order to recruit their support for such an offensive.  

If such an offensive is carried out and becomes
successful, Poroshenko would renew his support from the Ukrainian people, who
would be willing to forgive his sins and give the bulk of their votes to him
and his party.  Without any progress in
resolving the warfare in Donbas, the 2019 election season could become a source
of enormous instability, with Russian-aligned forces seeking to make big gains
in parliament, if not the presidency.

We don’t see any potential for
the Russian-backed legislation to be approved by parliament before 2019. Nor
will there be a national referendum on Donbas.