Ukraine state debt declines 0.5% in October

Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt declined 0.5%
m/m to USD 74.3 bln in October, mostly due to reduced state foreign debt, the
Finance Ministry reported on Nov. 27. State domestic debt slid 0.2% m/m to USD
26.7 bln, while foreign debt dropped 0.5% m/m to USD 37.7 bln. State-guaranteed
debt declined 0.9% m/m to USD 10.0 bln.

In UAH terms, the state debt declined 0.9% m/m, with
state foreign and domestic debt losing 1.0% m/m and 0.7% m/m, respectively. In
October, state debt amounted to 70.2% of Ukraine’s 2017 GDP.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The October
debt statistics apparently didn’t account for the government borrowing USD 2 bln
on Oct. 25 with its international Eurobond placement. 

The reported decline of foreign debt is mostly due to
reduced debt to international financial organizations. Domestic debt dropped as
redeemed local bonds exceeded receipts from local bonds placed by the
government. The more significant decline of debt in UAH terms is due to 0.2%
appreciation of the domestic currency in October.

For 2018, we project that state debt will rise to USD
78.2 bln (67.6% of GDP), assuming the aforementioned placement of international
Eurobonds and expected IMF loan tranche.