Ukraine state debt rises 0.5% yoy in May
3 July 2017
Ukraine’s state debt rose 0.5% m/m to USD 74.7 bln in
May due to hryvnia appreciation, the Finance Ministry reported on June 27. The
national currency gained 0.8%, strengthening to UAH 26.35/USD, thereby
increasing the public debt value denominated in U.S. dollars.
At the same time, hryvnia-denominated debt decreased
0.3% (by UAH 4.4 bln) owing to local debt repayments. The share of external
debt increased to 64.1% from 63.9% in the prior month.
Alexander
Paraschiy: We do not expect any noticeable changes in Ukraine’s
state debt until the next IMF loan tranche arrives. So far, it’s not clear when
this might happen. On June 22, the Cabinet finally submitted its pension reform
bill to parliament, but we doubt it will be approved before July 14, when the
summer recess begins. Even so, the IMF will want more than pension reform to
approve its next tranche.
Nevertheless, we expect at least one more IMF tranche
and USD 1.0 bln from a Eurobond placement this year. We project the state debt
will reach USD 76.3 bln (79.0% of GDP) by the end of 2017.
