Ukraine state debt stays flat in January

Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt stayed flat
at USD 78.3 bln in January, the Finance Ministry reported on Feb. 25. The rise
of state domestic debt was offset by declines in state-guaranteed foreign debt.
In particular, the state domestic debt increased 0.2% m/m to USD 27.6 bln.
Meanwhile, state-guaranteed debt dropped 1.1% m/m to USD 10.6 bln. State
foreign debt remained flat at USD 39.7 bln.

In UAH terms, overall state debt increased 0.2% m/m as
domestic state debt rose 0.5% m/m and state foreign debt inched up 0.2% m/m.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: State
domestic debt increased in January as newly attracted government debt from the
placement of local bonds exceeded redemption. In particular, the newly placed
domestic debt reached UAH 41.7 bln while repayments amounted to UAH 36.9 bln.

Meanwhile, the state-guaranteed debt declined mostly
due to reduced positions with several foreign banks. The increase of state debt
in UAH terms was mostly due to a 0.3% depreciation of the national currency in
January.

We project state and state-guaranteed debt will
increase to USD 80.8 bln in 2019, or around 62% of GDP. According to our estimate,
the state debt amounted to 61.5% of GDP in 2018.