Ukraine state debt stays flat m/m in February

Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt stayed flat
at USD 83.4 bln at the end of February, the Finance Ministry reported on March
26. State domestic debt rose 0.8% m/m to USD 33.2 bln, while the state foreign
debt declined 0.3% m/m to USD 40.5 bln. State-guaranteed slid 1.4% m/m to USD
9.8 bln.

In UAH terms, overall state debt dropped 1.5% m/m to
UAH 2,048 bln, making up 51.5% of Ukraine’s GDP in 2019.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The
February debt decline in UAH terms was mostly due to the hryvnia’s appreciation
in the last days of the month (UAH 24.56/USD as of Feb. 29 vs. UAH 24.92/USD as
of Jan. 31).

We expect Ukraine’s state debt to surge in 2020. The economic
breakdown caused by severe quarantine restrictions will balloon the budget
deficit, which will be financed by issuing new debt.