Ukraine to purchase second supply of Javelin anti-tank systems

Ukraine has signed a new contract to purchase a second
supply of Javelin anti-tank rocket systems from the U.S., said on Dec. 26
Deputy Defense Minister Anatoliy Petrenko, as reported by the ministry’s press
service. The purchase marks the first direct large-scale purchase by Ukraine of
U.S. arms after a law was amended to remove a prohibition on direct purchases
of military armaments and hardware from foreign states. This year, Ukraine
signed two military supply contracts with the U.S. government under the foreign
military sales program, and one supply contract with NATO. The Armed Forces
will also order rocket systems similar to Javelins that are produced in
Ukraine, Petrenko said.

About 51.2% of Ukrainians support integrating with the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) of collective defense and security,
according a poll published on Dec. 27. About 26.1% support neutral status of
not joining any military block, and only 5.5% support a military alliance with
Russia, the poll said. Meantime, about 64.2% of Ukrainians support integrating
with the European Union, while only 12.7% support the Eurasian Economic Union
led by Moscow. The poll was conducted jointly by the Razumkov Center and the
Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Fund between Dec. 13 and 18 involving 2,017
respondents.

Zenon Zawada: Russian
President Putin is entertaining a geopolitical fantasy of reconstructing the
Soviet Union in time for the 100-year anniversary commemorations planned for
2022. Russian officials have been conducting such talks in recent weeks with
Belarussian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, who has been reluctant to surrender
his nation’s sovereignty (though he’s not interested in Western integration
either). Putin is also reportedly fantasizing about leading a
Russian-Belarussian union after he relinquishes the presidency in 2024.

These latest developments in Ukraine, particularly the
poll numbers, confirm that Ukrainians are even less interested in reuniting
with Russia than the Belarusians may be. There are two main ways for Putin to
accomplish his Soviet reunification fantasy in Ukraine. The first is to foment
a violent domestic conflict, which can be accomplished by pressuring President
Zelensky to agree to capitulation in Donbas, which can spark a rebellion by
pro-Western forces.

The second way is to foment domestic chaos. This can
be accomplished by making the cost of war even more painful for Ukraine in the
event that Zelensky refuses to capitulate, prompting widespread dissatisfaction
in the public and efforts to remove him by both pro-Western and pro-Russian
forces.

We believe Zelensky is more likely to opt for
capitulating on Donbas, which makes sense considering his core electorate is in
the Russophile southeastern regions and is the most interested in ending the
warfare. If the pro-Western forces rebel, and Zelensky is hesitant to use force
against his own people (he has said he won’t remove maidan protesters), Putin
could use the opportunity to intervene militarily.