Ukraine trade gap expands on higher gas imports in August
16 October 2013
Ukraine’s trade deficit increased 8.9% yoy in August to USD 1.57 bln, according to state statistics released on October 15. Exports declined 10.8% yoy while imports decreased 6.9% yoy in August. In 8M13, trade deficit amounted to USD 7.4 bln, still below the 8M12 gap of USD 10.1 bln.
Alexander Paraschiy: The growing trade deficit is in line with our estimates. Falling metal exports (-14.8% yoy) and transport equipment exports (-61.7% yoy), as well as resumed natural gas imports (+61.1% vs. monthly average in 7M13), were the key reasons for August’s trade deficit growth.
We expect this trend to only strengthen till the year end. In particular, gas imports are projected to increase on the back of the back of estimated 5 bcm imports in September and an extra 5 bcm of technical gas that oligarch Dmytro Firtash promised to pump into the gas storage tanks to secure smooth Russian gas transit this winter. Also, we anticipate continued difficulties with Ukrainian machinery exports to Russia. What’s more, we do not see any sign of a commodities prices recovery in the near future and that will hardly happen in view of the budget shutdown in the U.S. We project the trade deficit at USD 14.5 bln in 2013, which is still below USD 15.9 bln observed in 2012.
