Ukraine two largest factions ready to form new coalition, cabinet today

Ukraine’s two largest parliamentary factions, the Petro Poroshenko Bloc and the People’s Front (led by PM Yatsenyuk), are expected to announce today the formation of a new coalition government and the dismissal of Yatsenyuk and his Cabinet. The recruitment of independent MPs (including those ejected from other factions) has enabled the two factions to achieve the 226-vote majority needed. In addition, five more MPs are ready to join the Poroshenko Bloc, said MP Iryna Lutsenko on April 13.

 

Ukrainian President Poroshenko submitted bills to parliament this morning recommending Hroisman to be nominated as prime minister, as well as re-nominating Pavlo Klimkin as foreign minister and Stepan Poltorak as defense minister. In the last day, numerous MPs began releasing the list of candidates for ministerial positions.

 

The likely candidates for key posts are as follows:

 

Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman – he has a strong relationship with the president, who will be taking full responsibility for the next government’s performance, to his disadvantage. Hroisman will keep the current sluggish pace of reforms on track, without many breakthroughs or acceleration. That won’t satisfy the public or the West and will likely lead to early parliamentary elections this year.

 

Vice Prime Minister for the Anti-Terrorist Operation and Occupied Territories Volodymyr Kistion – he served as Hroisman’s deputy mayor in their native city of Vinnytsia. His appointment would indicate that the president and prime minister will coordinate their efforts in conducting the Anti-Terrorist Operation and governing the Donbas region.

 

Vice Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Ivanna Klympush-Tsyntsadze – she has extensive experience in working with Western officials and will keep Ukraine’s Western integration efforts on track.

 

Energy Minister Ihor Nasalyk – currently a small-town mayor, his last influential post in the energy sphere was as head of the parliamentary subcommittee on oil production and supply between 2002 and 2005. Given his relative obscurity, his nomination indicates he will follow in the footsteps of his predecessor in being fully loyal to the president’s will in this critical economic sphere.

 

Finance Minister Oleksandr Danyliuk – earning an M.B.A. from the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University, he worked for McKinsey & Company and led a London investment fund for four years. He served as an economic advisor to former President Yanukovych and the current president. His arrival means the departure of Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko, whose tenure is among the successes of the outgoing Cabinet. Danyliuk will have his work cut out for him in maintaining the relations with the West that she accomplished.

 

Agrarian Minister Taras Kutoviy – elected under the Poroshenko Bloc, he is currently head of the parliamentary committee on agrarian policy and land management. He previously served as first deputy head of the committee after his election to parliament in 2012. He built his career and wealth in the private sector. For Poroshenko and Hroisman, it’s critical to have an ally like Kutoviy to oversee this critical economic sector for Ukraine is invaluable.

 

Interior Minister Arsen Avakov – he has led the reforms in the police, conducting lustration and introducing street patrols, which enjoy public support and are among the few reforms that have been felt by the average citizen. At the same time, critics say much reform is still needed in the police force, which serves the interest of oligarchs, particularly in the real estate business. Avakov will represent Yatsenyuk’s interests in the Cabinet. 

 

Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin – since taking over in June 2014, he has performed a solid job in challenging the powerhouse of Russian diplomacy with the limited resources offered by his ministry. He has also prevented any diplomatic mishaps from harming Ukraine’s standing on the international stage. Between a Europe that is striving for peace at any price, and an aggressive Russia seeking to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty, Klimkin has provided a bridge of stability with his leadership. 

 

Defense Minister Stepan Poltarak – taking over a military in disastrous condition, he has done as much as anyone might have been able to do. Corruption incidents involving the defense ministry continue to surface on a weekly basis, which is positive in the sense that they’re being exposed and addressed. Yet enormous work remains ahead in improving the ability of the Ukrainian military to defend against Russia, largely beyond the control of the defense minister.

 

Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko – his candidacy would be an awkward attempt by the president to satisfy Western demands for reform while at the same time maintaining tight control over the most important state body. Legislation was already submitted on April 12 to change the laws to allow someone like Lutsenko to serve, who has no experience as a prosecutor. We expect Lutsenko will act as a valve on the prosecutor’s office, letting off just enough steam whenever pressure intensifies from the West and the public.