Ukraine upgrades 1Q13 GDP to -1.1% yoy
11 June 2013
Ukraine’s 1Q13 GDP growth was revised to -1.1% yoy from -1.3% yoy, according to state statistics released on June 10. Private consumption reportedly grew 4.5% yoy (+6.9% yoy in 4Q12), gross capital accumulation increased 3.8% yoy (-7.4% yoy in 4Q12) and government consumption grew 1.9% yoy (-1.3% yoy in 4Q12). Real exports kept falling (-6.8% yoy) faster than real imports (-4.6% yoy).
Alexander Paraschiy: The detailed data on 1Q13 GDP was in line with our estimates. Though investment sped up a bit after the election’s end, real exports kept sinking deeper. Inventories remained on a fast decline (UAH -22.9 bln vs. UAH -7.3 bln in 1Q12) owing to an active pace of grain exports.
There was a surprise in the modest rise in private consumption, which we estimated would have grown twice as fast, in line with retail trade statistics (we expected a 8.4% yoy increase). Without reliable domestic demand, we are updating our forecast for 2013, which we can hardly expect to grow more than a symbolic 0.2% yoy this year.
