Ukraine will send navy ships to Kerch Strait again, Turchynov vows

The Ukrainian government is preparing to send more
navy ships through the Russian-controlled Kerch Strait, Oleksandr Turchynov,
the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, told the
BBC news agency in an interview published on Dec. 19. “This is a matter of
principle for us,” he said. “If we stop and back down, then Russia will have
practically fulfilled its goal of taking control of the Azov Sea, presenting to
the world its new, self-determined maritime boundaries in the Black Sea and de
facto legalizing its occupation of Crimea.” The government has invited the
representatives of the OSCE, NATO and other international organizations to
escort its ships as they travel from its ports in the Black Sea to the Azov Sea
“to prove to the whole world that Ukraine and its sailors aren’t violating any
laws or international rules,” he said, adding that “our initiative hasn’t
received an answer so far.”

Ukraine’s Armed Forces will deploy new, modern missile
systems as part of its systemic work to defend Ukraine’s coastline along the
Black and Azov seas, Turchynov said in the same interview. They are also
creating an Azov Sea navy unit, he said. “This will enable us to not only
effectively counteract any air operations, but also destroy any ship that
threatens our country at a distance of 300 km, even if it’s based in a port,”
he said. “It will not be a problem for us, in the event of a threat, to destroy
any crossing or bridge, particularly the one that has been heavily advertised,”
he said, referring to the Crimean Bridge opened in May.

Zenon Zawada: All the
pieces are falling in place for another armed conflict to erupt between Russian
and Ukrainian militaries, particularly after the nation’s highest ranking
defense officials – Turchynov and the defense minister –
have vowed to send Ukrainian military ships back through the Kerch Strait.
Meanwhile, high-ranking Russian officials, as well as the Russian mass media,
have been speculating daily about various Ukrainian military provocations being
planned in Donbas and the Black Sea. So all it will take is a single small
incident, similar to armed conflict on Nov. 25, to set this tinderbox ablaze,
which we expect will happen in the coming months, if not weeks.

We believe these repeated vows by defense officials of
returning to the Kerch Strait are a deliberate mass communications strategy by
the Presidential Administration that is intended to maintain a tough position
against Russia amid Poroshenko’s repeated vows to end martial law (unless
Russia invades). The administration is creating the appearance that Poroshenko
doesn’t want to extend martial law and the armed conflict, just as his closest
officials are, in essence, laying the groundwork for an explosive incident.
Naturally, the OSCE and NATO aren’t going to accompany Ukrainian ships because
they will be directly entangling themselves in what’s like to be an armed
incident.

An escalated conflict with Russia would benefit
President Poroshenko in retaining power past the March 31 presidential vote,
whether by holding elections or postponing them. That’s why he and his close
officials have been making provocative statements (such as threatening to
destroy the Crimean Bridge) in recent weeks, knowing that any aggression by
Russia against Ukraine in response works towards their goal of keeping power. A
repeat of the Nov. 25 conflict would give Poroshenko the necessary pretext to
extend or renew martial law, and even hold the March vote under such
conditions.

But the Ukrainian president is playing with fire
because even the slightest provocation could provoke a reaction from Russia
that extends far beyond the gunfire that was employed on Nov. 25. A key Russian
adviser warned last week that a Russian response must “deprive Ukraine of
various military opportunities for aggression.” That would likely involve air
strikes against strategic sites on Ukrainian territory, which we believe the
president would use a justification to extend or renew martial law.