Ukraine won’t amend constitution should Minsk accords collapse

The Ukrainian government will review its constitutional amendments should the Minsk accords collapse, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on Sept.  9, as reported by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency. He was referring to the announced plans of the Donetsk People’s Republic to hold local elections on Oct. 18, which he already said would have “ruinous consequences.” The Constitution also won’t be amended under martial law or a state of emergency, he said. “Everyone – in Ukraine and beyond its borders – should know that without tangible progress in the political-diplomatic field, the final approval of constitutional amendments won’t occur,” Poroshenko said. “That’s my principled position.”

The majority of the clauses of the law on local self-governance of certain districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which was approved in September 2014, aren’t being enforced, Poroshenko said on Sept. 9. “They can work only when elections are held in the districts in accordance with Ukrainian law and OSCE standards; these standards are adopted along with the establishment of elections by international observers; and these territories are freed after occupational forces are removed and Ukrainian control is restored along the border,” he said.

Zenon Zawada: The future of the Minsk accords is dependent on the West convincing the Russian leadership to cancel or postpone the planned October elections in the occupied territories of Donetsk. If the elections are held in defiance of the West, we expect a new round of economic sanctions to be imposed on Moscow by the West. Assuming that President Putin wants to avoid more sanctions, we expect a compromise to emerge.

Another reason the Russians will likely compromise is to use the Minsk accords as an instrument of manipulating the West and the Ukrainian government. It’s doubtful the Russians will want to lose this yoke that the West has imposed on itself and Ukraine.