Ukraine’s COVID-19 rate of increase begins to plateau

Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences (NAS) published
a COVID-19 forecast on April 6. A number of factors point to the beginning of a
slowdown of the spread of the epidemic. These factors include the fact that the
observed data is slightly lower than expected. Also, “the maximum of positivity
of PCR tests is passed”, and the growth rate of hospital workloads had decreased
slightly. The NAS points out that the plateau phase is “a very uncertain
condition” and could last for several weeks. In particular, mortality
“significantly depends on the occupancy and availability of hospitals”, thus
making predictions difficult.

Regarding the occupancy and availability of hospitals,
on April 7, Kyiv mayor Vitaly Klitschko announced that some Kyiv hospitals were
already overfilled with COVID patients. Overall, the city’s hospitals were at
77% occupancy. He noted that assistance from outside the municipal hospital
system is not coming at the rates required.

James Hydzik: The
forecast by the NAS provides a bleak assessment of the current COVID wave, but
at least there seems to be a cap forming. The report shows that the so-called
‘British’ strain predominates, which does show some differences from the
previous waves, but is known well enough that there is no expectation that it
could deviate tremendously from the past cycle.

The situation with hospital beds in Kyiv is
complicated by a shortage of beds with oxygen supply at some of the
non-municipal hospitals. Ministries with their own medical facilities may be
loath to open them for the city, but the technical deficiencies cannot be
overcome simply by decree.