13 May 2008
Ukraine cut electricity exports by 39.7% yoy to 2,328.8 bln kW in January-April 2008.
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Country, mln kW 4M07 4M08 Chg,%
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Hungary 1,110.8 1,152.5 3.8
Russia 894.5 0.0 0.0
Moldova 867.1 930.3 7.3
Belarus 488.6 0.0 0.0
Poland 310.5 53.7 -82.7
Romania 142.2 44.9 -68.4
Slovakia 51.3 147.4 187.3
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Total 3,865.0 2,328.8 -39.7
Source: Ukraine’s Ministry of Fuel and Energy
Alexander Paraschiy: Electricity exports to CIS counties has followed a trend in recent months (down 59% yoy) – supplies of electricity to Belarus and Russia stopped in mid-2007, and there is low chance of resumption. At the moment, Ukraine is negotiating with Lithuania to export electricity, but prospects for this depend on power transit through Belarus. In terms of exports to UCTE countries, a positive trend emerged: as we expected, Ukraine has resumed electricity exports to Poland in mid-April (exports stopped in fall 2007 as the parties were unable to agree upon prices). Over 4M08, Ukraine reduced exports to UCTE counties by 13% yoy (a slight increase compared to the 14% yoy decline in 1Q08). As before, we forecast a 15% yoy drop in electricity exports for FY08.