18 August 2009
According to preliminary calculations from the State Statistics Committee, Ukraine’s GDP declined 18% yoy in 2Q09. The committee did not publish a breakdown of 2Q09 GDP, and said that details would be available on September 30. GDP was down 20.3% yoy in 1Q09. Andrii Parkhomenko: We reiterate our FY2009 forecast of a GDP decline at 12% yoy. Our estimate does not imply any rapid improvement in the economy by yearend. The improvement to 12% will be due to a lower statistical base in 4Q09, which might reach the level of output of 4Q08, when GDP dropped 8% yoy.