1 November 2011
Ukraine’s quarterly GDP grew 6.6% y-o-y in 3Q11 (+2.2% q-o-q in seasonally adjusted terms) accelerating from 3.8% y-o-y (+0.5% q-o-q) in 2Q11, according to UkrStat. We estimate the economy grew 5.3% y-o-y in 9M11. Svetlana Rekrut: Strong GDP growth came on the back of a plentiful harvest that lifted 9M11 agricultural production by 13.7% y-o-y. Industry and service sectors also held up quite well last quarter, even though weakening of external and domestic demand started to take its toll. We expect GDP will decelerate to 3.0-3.5% y-o-y in 4Q11 as the effects of the plentiful harvest fade and project 2011E economic growth of 4.7-4.8% y-o-y, still a healthy rate by any standard. We also think 2012 will continue to see deceleration of economic activities as global economic jitters persist.